The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest data showing how air passenger numbers are changing month-by-month. Its latest report pertaining to August 2024 shows that global air traffic rose by 8.6% overall for the month, indicating that there is no let-up in the surging demand for air travel despite ongoing geopolitical challenges faced by the airline industry.
In August 2024, total demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) was up 8.6% compared to August 2023. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK) was up 6.5% year-on-year. The August average network load factor was 86.2%, representing a rise of 1.6% compared to August 2023, which IATA states is a new record high for this metric.
Breaking the figures down further, international demand rose by 10.6% compared to August 2023. Meanwhile, international capacity was up 10.1% year-on-year, and the load factor rose to 85.7%, representing a 0.4% increase compared to August 2023.
In terms of domestic traffic, demand rose by 5.6% compared to figures for August 2023. Capacity was up 1.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.9%, a rise of +3.6% compared to August 2023.
“The market for air travel is hot and airlines are doing a great job at meeting the growing demand for travel,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Efficiency gains have driven load factors to record highs while the 6.5% capacity increase demonstrates resilience in the face of persistent supply chain issues and infrastructure deficiencies.”
“Looking ahead, the continued strong demand growth signals that we could be fast approaching an infrastructure capacity crunch that would restrict connectivity and choice for passengers and businesses. If governments want to maximize the benefits of aviation, they must make bold decisions to ensure sufficient infrastructure capacity. And, in the interim, both airports and air navigation service providers need to do more with the resources they currently have,” he added.
“In particular, the variance in the declared capacity of airports with broadly the same infrastructure needs to be resolved, with airports emulating the best performers. The industry cannot afford to under-utilize the airport infrastructure that we have,” Walsh concluded.
Regional Breakdown – International traffic
The IATA report for August 2024 indicates that shows that all global regions showed growth for international passenger markets in August 2024 compared to August 2023. Ticket sales in May to July for travel in August to September showed a 6.6% year-on-year increase, which IATA says, “bodes well for further strong growth [for the rest of 2024].”
Looking at the regional breakdown, Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 19.9% year-on-year increase in demand in August 2024. Capacity increased 18.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.2%, a rise of +0.8% compared to August 2023). IATA states that Asia-Pacific is still growing robustly as a region and is now just 8% from full recovery to pre-pandemic levels.
European carriers saw a 9.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.2%, an increase of 0.5% compared to August 2023). While Europe to Asia routes were the fastest growing, they are still “markedly below their 2019 peak” according to IATA.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 5.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.5%, down 0.6% compared to August 2023. It will be interesting to watch what the figures for this area look like for September and October 2024 as regional tensions rise and military action between countries intensifies.
North American carriers saw a 4.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 3.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 88.2%, up 0.4% compared to August 2023, the highest rise among the regions analyzed. Meanwhile, Latin American airlines saw a 13.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased by 15.2% year-on-year, while the load factor was 85.1% for the region, down by 1.2% compared to August 2023.
Lastly, African airlines saw a 10.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 7.3% year-on-year, while the load factor rose to 77.8%, up 2% compared to August 2023.
Regional Breakdown – domestic traffic
According to IATA, domestic demand increased in August, with growth in all key markets, especially China. Domestic ticket sales for August to September 2024 grew 4.3% year-on-year, which “underpins solid growth prospects for the rest of the year”, the association said.
Turbulence ahead?
With geopolitical tensions engulfing the Middle East and threatening to destabilize world politics on a broader scale, the outlook for air traffic remains volatile. Only time will tell whether this rise in tensions boils over and eventually prevents people from flying, bringing an end to the post-pandemic heydays of surging demand and the growth of commercial air travel.
What are your opinions about how air travel will be affected by events in the Middle East for the rest of 2024? Do let us know your views via the comments section below.