Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair announced on March 14, 2025, that his department is actively reviewing potential alternatives to the Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter, a decision that could dramatically reshape the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) fleet modernization plans.
This move follows a broader government reshuffle after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and growing diplomatic tensions between Canada and the United States under President Donald Trump’s second term.
“The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Blair stated in an interview with CBC.
His remarks echo previous commitments by Swedish defense contractor Saab, which had promised to have its JAS 39 Gripen assembled and maintained by Canadian industry if selected during the fighter tender process ultimately won by Lockheed Martin’s F-35.
Despite Canada having already partially paid for an initial batch of 16 F-35As, Blair’s comments suggest that the RCAF may not proceed with the full procurement of 88 aircraft as originally planned. This could lead Canada to maintain a mixed fighter fleet, balancing the F-35s with an alternative aircraft.
Canada’s reconsideration follows a pattern of skepticism among allies regarding the F-35 program. On March 13, 2025, Portugal’s Minister of Defense, Nuno Melo, revealed that his country was also reassessing its plans to potentially replace its aging F-16 fleet with F-35s, though no order had been placed.
“There are several options that must be considered, particularly in the context of European production and also taking into account the return that these options may have on the Portuguese economy,” Melo told to the Portuguese newspaper Público. “The world has already changed […] And this ally of ours, which has always been predictable over the decades, could bring limitations to use, maintenance, components, and everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and used in all types of scenarios.”
A history of Canadian F-35 indecision
Canada’s relationship with the F-35 program has been tumultuous. In 2010, then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government committed to acquiring 65 F-35As for $8.6 billion without holding a competitive tender. This decision was in line with Canada’s status as a Level III partner in the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, having contributed approximately $613 million to its development.
However, Justin Trudeau’s 2015 election campaign centered on reversing this procurement. Trudeau criticized the lack of competition and vowed to select a lower-cost alternative that would better suit Canada’s defense needs. Upon taking office, his government formally canceled the order but maintained Canada’s partnership in the JSF program.
In 2017, Canada launched the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) to find a replacement for its aging CF-18 Hornets. The competition initially included Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Airbus’ Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault’s Rafale, and Saab’s Gripen.
However, the tender quickly narrowed. Dassault Aviation withdrew in 2018, with CEO Eric Trappier citing insurmountable security constraints imposed by Canada’s membership in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. In 2019, Airbus followed suit, arguing that the terms of the tender seemed skewed in favor of Lockheed Martin.
By late 2021, Boeing’s Super Hornet was also disqualified by Public Services and Procurement Canada for undisclosed reasons, leaving only two contenders: Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and Saab’s Gripen. On March 28, 2022, Canada confirmed its selection of the F-35, citing its interoperability with NORAD and NATO forces.
Shifting geopolitical landscape in North America
The latest developments come amid increasing diplomatic friction between Ottawa and Washington. Trump’s return to the White House has been marked by controversial statements, including musings about Canada potentially becoming the 51st US state, as well as renewed trade disputes. These tensions appear to be influencing defense procurement decisions, with Canada seeking alternatives that provide greater domestic industrial benefits.
Should Canada ultimately pivot away from the F-35, it would signal a significant shift in its defense strategy. Historically, the two countries have been closely aligned in air operations.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a binational organization between the United States and Canada, is responsible for safeguarding the airspace of both nations using a multi-layered defensive system comprising satellites, ground-based and airborne radars, and fighter jets.
A decision to introduce a non-US fighter into Canada’s fleet could present logistical and interoperability challenges, particularly concerning joint operations and defense coordination with the US Air Force.