Considering potential delays and high costs associated with Australia’s AUKUS submarine program, Australian defense experts have recommended a strategic shift to include the B-21 Raider stealth bomber as a Plan B.
Under the AUKUS program, the Royal Australian Navy is to receive three Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines between 2032 and 2038. However, US shipyards are facing a shortage of qualified workforce and deficient supply chains, which are challenging the delivery timeline.
In a report entitled “National Security and Australia’s Northern Defence,” the Institute for Public Affairs (IPA) and Strategic Analysis Australia argue that while AUKUS is necessary to challenge China’s regional influence in Asia-Pacific, the decades-long timeline for delivering nuclear-powered submarines is a significant drawback.
“Our first policy recommendation is that the Government needs an AUKUS Plan B – a strategy which will help to deliver military capability earlier and create a fallback position, in case circumstances mean the nuclear submarines can’t or won’t be delivered,” the IPA explained,
The think tank suggests that the B-21 Raider, whose low-rate production was approved by the US Air Force (USAF) in January 2024, could provide Australia with a powerful long-range strike capability by 2027, years before AUKUS submarines would be operational.
Can a bomber replace a submarine?
“We judge that a capacity to operate and maintain the platform in the Indo-Pacific would add a powerful deterrent option, earlier, to the US and to Australia,” the IPA argued. “Both platforms are primarily designed to place high-explosive on to a target. If the target is destroyed it doesn’t matter if the cruise missile was delivered by an aircraft or a submarine.”
The think tank also proposes hosting a US B-21 contingent in Australia. At an estimated $700 million per aircraft, the B-21 is viewed as a cost-effective alternative to the nuclear submarine project, projected to cost between $176 billion and $245 billion by the mid-2050s.
The idea echoes a suggestion made by US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall in August 2022. During a visit to Australia’s capital, Canberra, Kendall had indicated that the United States would be open to supplying Australia with B-21 bombers if requested .
