The aircraft manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) anticipates demand for 9,084 new aircraft valued at $1.4 trillion in the Chinese market over the next 20 years.
According to COMAC’s commercial aviation market forecast for 2021-2040, new deliveries will include 6,295 narrow-body jets, 1,836 widebodies, and 953 turboprop aircraft. The demand for new aircraft will be driven by air traffic increase and growing passenger turnover.
With the anticipated average annual fleet growth rate of 5.2%, China will have a total of 9,957 aircraft by 2040, accounting for 22% of the global passenger aircraft fleet. It will make China the world’s largest single aviation market.
The domestic aviation market in China and the United States is expected to recover first, followed by Europe and other regions. Meanwhile, the global aviation market will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, COMAC says.
On September 23, 2021, Boeing also released a commercial aviation forecast, saying that China will need 8,700 new jets through 2040.