Avia Solutions Group (ASG) experienced remarkable growth in 2024, further solidifying its position as a global leader in aviation services.
By year-end, ASG companies operated a fleet of 222 aircraft. The group estimates its consolidated revenues will reach around $3 billion for the ongoing financial year. Among its subsidiaries, the MRO provider FL Technics and ground services provider BGS achieved record-breaking profits.
At the Avia Solutions Group Annual Leaders’ Summit, Chairman Gediminas Ziemelis presented an analysis of current market dynamics and shared the company’s strategic roadmap for future growth.
Aviation recovery and OEM challenges
As of 2024, the aviation industry has rebounded strongly from the pandemic, with global passenger traffic reaching 104% of 2019 levels, equivalent to 4.75 billion travelers. Despite this recovery, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) continue to grapple with production delays, with full recovery not expected until 2026–2029.
Since 2019, OEMs have underdelivered by approximately 3,400 narrowbody and 1,200 widebody aircraft. Compounding the situation, a recent Boeing strike involving more than 33,000 workers represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) delayed production schedules further. The strike began in September 2024 and ended on November 5, 2024, after union members approved a new pay agreement with a 38% salary increase.
“Starting from 2030 and beyond, 90% of Boeing and Airbus orders are directly owned by airlines,” Ziemelis noted, emphasizing that ASG cannot afford to place speculative orders and wait until 2031 or 2032 to receive aircraft.
He continued: “Airlines that do not have original orders from OEMs will face challenges in securing aircraft, as their competitors or other market participants are unlikely to sell to them.”
Meanwhile, the demand for widebody cargo aircraft is on the rise, fueled by the expansion of Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress. Projections indicate that this demand will remain strong over the next three years.
“However, the network for storing goods is not yet prepared,” ASG’s chairman added.
“E-commerce companies relying on widebody capacity are currently delivering record profits to both shareholders and operators.”
Finally, the chairman noted that leasing rates in 2024 have risen by an average of 20% compared to the previous year.
Key numbers for Avia Solutions Group in 2024
In 2024, Avia Solutions Group made substantial strides in expanding its Air Operator Certificates (AOCs) across four key regions, acquiring or starting new airline ventures in Australia, Turkey, the UK, and Indonesia.
“I think we are the only one organization in the world which, within one year, established four operational airline companies,” Ziemelis noted.
The organization’s network expansion is ongoing, with new developments in Brazil, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia. These AOCs are currently nearing completion, pending approval from relevant authorities and transportation ministries, with the expectation that they will become operational within the next six months.
FL Technics, a key subsidiary of the group, achieved remarkable success this year, operating with more than 2,500 employees across 70 global locations. The subsidiary recorded record profits and is gearing up for an ambitious 2030 plan, which promises to further enhance its growth trajectory.
Following the eight-week industrial action at Boeing, Avia Solutions Group became the first company to place an order, securing 40 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft with an option for an additional 40. The value of this transaction is $5 billion.
“I believe we will utilize all 40 options in addition to the original order,” Ziemelis predicted.
This order is projected to ensure that by 2030, more than 20% of the group’s fleet will consist of new-technology aircraft. The group will leverage the extended operational range of the MAX aircraft (1,000 kilometers/620 miles more) to create new opportunities and routes while addressing Europe’s commitment to reducing noise and CO₂ emissions, a priority for the group.
Throughout its 17 business lines, Avia Solutions Group demonstrated notable progress in 2024, securing more than 50 new licenses and approvals in maintenance, training, and other essential services.
Avia Solutions Group is experiencing significant financial growth. Although final figures are still being compiled, the consolidated revenues are expected to exceed $3 billion. The fleet size also achieved a notable milestone, finishing the year with 222 aircraft, which strengthens the group’s position among the top 25 global airline companies. For 2025, the board and management have set a goal of expanding the fleet to 240 aircraft while being mindful of high lease rates and taking a cautious approach to growth.
The ACMI seasonal advantage
“There are 50 billion birds in the world, and 10% of them migrate,” said Ziemelis.
Interestingly, this figure mirrors the addressable market identified by the consulting firm McKinsey for Avia Solutions Group, which indicates that 10% of aircraft operate between continents during peak seasons.
Birds can migrate up to 16,000 kilometers (10,000 miles), often following routes similar to aircraft traveling between Europe and the Asia-Pacific or Latin America. Global seasonality leads to varying school start dates, with September in Europe, January in Australia, and March in Latin America.
This insight is crucial for the company’s strategy, as Europe is projected to have 1.1 billion passengers in 2024, 4% above pre-COVID levels. However, with 31% more passengers in summer, more than 1,000 aircraft go unused during the winter months.
“A successful ACMI provider needs to operate across six continents to leverage counter-seasonal demand for stability and growth,” Ziemelis noted.
He also emphasized that each AOC must maintain a minimum level of year-round business, operating at least 10 aircraft in its respective country or continent. Seasonal ACMI capacity, added during peak periods, is effective for airlines only if it represents at least 10% of the airline’s total fleet. Additionally, ACMI services create financial value for scheduled carriers when used for a maximum of six months per financial year, aligning with peak demand seasons.
While no single market can match Europe’s scale, the company aims to strategically position its aircraft in regions with contrasting peak seasons, with the goal of matching Europe’s passenger numbers by 2025 or 2026.
Looking ahead, the ACMI market is projected to consist of approximately 1,500 aircraft valued at $25 billion by 2030. ASG aims to capture 50% of this market by that time, which translates to a fleet of 700 aircraft.